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The cricket frenzy set to hit India as the International Cricket Council's World Cup begins in a nation of cricket-crazy fans is expected to give a short boost to the country's economy as consumers splurge to enjoy their favorite sport. "The World Cup has the potential to boost India’s GDP, more so because it coincides with the festive season," Sabnavis said. India last hosted the world cup in 2011, when 1.2 million people attended matches, according to data from brokerage house Jefferies. "On India match days, fares have shot up on average by150% for select hotels and 80% for select flights compared with the prior week," said Jefferies in a note this week. "We expect companies to run world-cup specific promotions on match days to tap this consumption boost."
Persons: Narendra Modi, Sachin Tendulkar, Amit Dave, Madan Sabnavis, Sabnavis, Jefferies, Rajesh Magow, Baroda's Sabnavis, Ira Dugal, Lincoln Organizations: Cricket, ICC Cricket, New Zealand, Narendra, Rights, International Cricket, Bank of Baroda, Hospitality, Reuters Graphics Online, homestays, Baroda's, Thomson Locations: England, New, Ahmedabad, India, Rights MUMBAI, Western India, Pakistan
MUMBAI, June 27 (Reuters) - India's current account deficit narrowed sharply in the January to March quarter, helped by a smaller trade gap and increased services exports, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Wednesday. The current account deficit (CAD) (INCURA=ECI) stood at $1.3 billion, or 0.2% of gross domestic product (GDP), in the fourth quarter of the 2022/23 fiscal year, compared with the previous quarter's revised deficit of $16.8 billion, or 2% of GDP. The deficit had stood at $13.4 billion in the same period a year earlier, the data showed. Forecasts ranged widely, from a deficit of $5 billion to a surplus of $7.8 billion. For the 2022/23 fiscal year the current account balance showed a deficit of 2% of GDP versus a deficit of 1.2% in the preceding financial year as the trade deficit widened to $265.3 billion from $189.5 billion a year earlier.
Persons: Aditi Gupta, Baroda's Gupta, Siddhi Nayak, Sudipto Ganguly, Clarence Fernandez, David Goodman Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Reuters Graphics, Baroda, Bank, Baroda's, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI
"Bank of Baroda is extremely cautious in settling payments for Russian oil bought (at levels) above the price cap," one of the sources said. After Western sanctions on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, Indian refiners have been gorging on discounted Russian oil. Russia has replaced Iraq as the top oil supplier to India in the last few months, data from trade sources showed. It was not clear if Axis Bank had also stopped settling trades for Russian oil sold above the price cap. India does not recognise the Western price cap on Russian oil, a senior oil ministry source said last month.
But the market turmoil led its flagship Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) to abandon a $2.5 billion secondary share offering on Wednesday, prompting concerns at lenders. 1 lender, SBI says the bank has about 270 billion rupees ($3.3 billion) in loans to Adani Group. Bank debt forms 38% of the total debt of 2.1 trillion rupees at the top five Adani companies, according to a Jefferies report. Senior executives at six other Indian lenders, with exposure to Adani companies, told Reuters they had also decided to tighten the credit approval process for Adani. India's central bank has asked local banks for details of their exposure to Adani companies, Reuters reported on Thursday, citing government and banking sources.
Housing rentals and ancillary costs have a 10.07% weightage in India's consumer price inflation basket and are near three-year highs, posing a fresh worry for the central bank that had to contend with rising food prices for most of last year. Urban housing inflation rose to 4.47% year-on-year in December 2022, versus 3.61% in the same period a year ago and 3.21% in December 2020, data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation showed. "Core inflation has continued to remain sticky and hence an increase in housing inflation poses a significant risk to the overall inflation outlook," said Aditi Gupta, an economist at Bank of Baroda. While housing prices are not part of the consumer price inflation basket, their effect is captured through construction and raw material prices, and analysts do not expect a slowdown any time soon. Analysts said rising house prices would also feed into higher demand for services like electricity and repairs, ultimately working their way into the overall inflation basket.
At least four leading economists expect nominal GDP growth to come in between 8% and 11% as inflation slows and real GDP growth eases from an estimated 7% this year, when pandemic-related distortions and pent-up demand pushed up growth rates. Das said he expects nominal GDP growth of 8%-9% in FY24, with inflation and real GDP growth seen declining. A growth of 8-9% would bring that number close to the 7.6% nominal growth seen in 2019/20, before the Covid crisis hit. State Bank of India and rating agency ICRA estimate the nominal GDP growth at around 10% for next financial year. "Higher-than-budgeted nominal GDP growth,(will help) to keep fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP at 6.4%, with downside risks," it said.
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterTo defend the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India has dipped into its forex reserves. "It would be important to rebuild FX reserves for sure. Reuters GraphicsUNPROFITABLE SPREADSBack in 2013, the RBI had offered to swap the U.S. dollars banks had raised via foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits or foreign currency funding for rupees at concessional rates. And while reserves at current levels are adequate to cover more than eight months of imports, analysts say a sustained depletion could cause some concern. Bank of Baroda's Sabnavis suggested floating sovereign bonds, like the Resurgent India bonds (RIBs) India Millennium Deposit bonds (IMDs) in the past, to help boost forex reserves.
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